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I spotted this article on my twitter feed and I read it and then wandered off, and then came back to it, thinking 'Hmmm there might be a little story for me to write here'Ok, I might be exaggerating a little, but still, here's what I can think ofFor example, consider the case of Facebook. They already have massive server farms located all over the world, and it likely will never be obvious to you that when new data comes in.New posts probably take a few seconds to get into every replica of their database in every server farm. Users typing comments notifications probably use a similar channel as the chat system and only posts that are visible on your screen trigger a subscription to notifications, so in effect it is much like the chat except it doesn't tell you who it is and the whole message is 'user typing a comment' and 'user stopped typing a comment' and 'new comment'.What possible point would there be for this to be done on a blockchain, anyway? Oh, you mean this platform here?From an architecture perspective, this platform is not so different to Facebook. The developers group is like Facebook's management/development team.The Witnesses are like the geographically distributed server farms that replicate and serve the application, sorta.The membership of the Witness group is fluid, but it's not really permissionless. The incredible rate of payment for blocks, makes the witnesses so powerful in their stake that if they hodl tight and vote for their buddies, they never need to really do anything except keep those blocks pumping.So, it's kinda permissionless, but kinda not really, once it gets up and running. It would be less permissioned and centralised if, for example, you had term limits for witnesses, some maximum number of blocks you can mine in some period of time, but you betcha people, especially established witnesses, would game that.Probably one that is suffering persecution. Whistleblowers, outcasts, and the like. Ah, yes, like this one! But not, in general, the Steem platform. That's for sure 100% scam territory.The blatant mislabeling and deceptive use of buzzwords like 'blockchain' and 'decentralised', when the architecture is more like an abandoned building with unlocked doors. Once a few people move in, they put on locks, bar the windows, and drinks are at nightclub prices, instead of the previous free parties...So, yes, social networks are a clear use case for permissionless blockchain technology. But let's get back to what started this all off:For those in the Holy Church of Bitcoin, it is 'obvious' that there can be only one. I disagree with this fundamentally, however, the very nature of money is all about what high-falutin' money market commentators call 'currency area'.The more users a currency has, the greater power afforded to its' issuers. It is no coincidence that in response to this oversized power, that China and Russia and other competing governments not under the protection of the Military Industrial Complex, are somewhat friendly, yet quite torn and equivocal, about the growth of adoption of cryptocurrencies.It has nothing to do with them supporting permissionless, ownerless networks in general. Thus it should be no surprise that they are also more interested in gold as a method of large payments for things like a contract to supply some amount of barrels of crude oil to the crony oil companies whose loyalty and financial largesse make them good allies.While it is common to refer to the more decentralised systems like Bitcoin as 'permissionless', in fact there very much is owners. For example, right now, as mentioned in the article above, two notable companies spring to mind when talking about those who have a stake in the success of cryptocurrency and its wider adoption:In the history of the last 1000 years, we saw the very concept of 'commons' very nearly disappear entirely. Sure, you probably could build a house in the middle of the Sahara, or like some libertarians fantasise about, a floating city beyond the 5km boundary around the land claimed by a territorial government.But even then, by its very nature, and by the nature of the uneven distribution of skill, within a few years every new frontier is colonised with everything from pontificating philosophers to racketeers, the rugged pioneers are quickly replaced with townsfolk and franchise branches and whatever way in which those early adopters saw and used the resource in the frontier, quickly disappears, and and you blink and it all starts to look the same as every other place.The biggest tragedy of commons is that common resources cannot be efficiently allocated. Just look at government entitlement systems. You can never run out of people who want freebies. Demand is always infinite, but we live in a finite world. In case some marxist or neomarxist type is reading this, no, you can't squeeze infinity out of finite resources, no matter how many hymns to the beauty of the commons you sing.As someone who is an outcast and who longs for MY OWN place, it is an extremely important issue to me.Yes, 'When moon?'... It's much like the bleat of the lazy asses who flock on the tail end of the rush to stake and dig up the biggest pot of gold during a gold rush.As I was reading a poorly thought out tweet from Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin, saying that it's not decentralised if it isn't vulnerable to a 51% attack.No, Charlie, the 51% isn't necessarily 51% (see Vertcoin time warp 51% attack, which only took about 10%) - If Charlie Lee had read even half of the papers I have read in the field of distributed network systems (about 10 or so), he would know that the 51% figure is only approximate, because protocol flaws can be leveraged to gain more control. In particular, the difficulty adjustment regime.There are already existing designs for distributed systems, like this platform, for example, which is a blend of blockchain and federated network (such as how many banks are involved in the SWIFT interbank transfer system), which can be both stronger and weaker to such attacks, the problem is it can be hard to say who is the attacker in some cases.The answer is that the census I drew up at the top of this article, pretty much covers it. The first three are productive or harmless, the last three are the mark of a frontier, just like the highway robbers patrolling the roads out of an area full of gold miners.People don't really want new things. New things require you to learn. The older you get, the more you realise that new and shiny means absolutely nothing, and that pathetic scamming bastards have made a lot of money in the history of our species over this.New inventions threaten whole markets. Have you ever wondered why the attacks from the banking establishment have been happening? They could lose customers, if enough merchants adopted cryptocurrency.But on the other side, moderating this, is the technology is so new, so raw and unpolished, that people are teaching themselves to not be lured in by lambos and high-flying confab meetings where people who write nearly no code blather on for hours about the wonders of this technology that got them lambos.I hope I have cast a nasty shadow on whatever remaining 'ooh shiny' you had about cryptocurrency. Because it's not the second coming, and it isn't going to take you to heaven, and burn all those central bankers in hell. Well, not straight away.No, but it's not going to 'go to zero' or 'fall out of use' like some silly fad like those yo-yos that coca-cola used to give out. But for sure it is first going to contract, a lot.It's not just cryptocurrency that is going to see a rapid haemorrhaging of userbase. Social networks like facebook and twitter are also at their limits of easy money potential as well.In fact, putting those two thoughts together, it should be obvious that the 'digital currency' virus has definitely bedded into people's minds quite well now. For this reason, companies like Facebook are looking at becoming currency issuers too, and will probably either copy or buy out Ripple to power it.Electricity companies, and especially governments with a huge stake in energy markets, are also very interested in decentralised currency network systems (eg.: Russia, Venezuela). Cryptocurrency miners tend to mainly use the cheapest possible power, they want to minimise overheads like cooling, and so finally there is a real, profitable activity that can come from the bleak, cold environments of regions like Siberia, Mongolia, Canada.Huge numbers of people being kicked off Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and other big social networks are landing on platforms like this, and 'alternative' competitors like Gab whose whole marketing gimmick is that they don't play curator on the content the users contribute, and don't aggressively gather user data to sell to marketing companies and governments.In 2018, cryptocurrency went fully mainstream. There is still maybe 6-18 months of bear market to come, and there is still weak hands to kick out, and 'developers' with zero imagination, like the Bitcoin and Litecoin communities. It makes me groan when I read the parp and bloop of these groups. They are like churches or cults, people seek them and huddle under their umbrella because 'it's about the vibe, man'.One of the most neglected, yet vitally important elements of a currency system has to do with the limitation of supply. Countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe (big hello to all the people from there, on here!) have the most recent experience of a currency that is printed out of existence, but almost every part of the former communist bloc of eastern europe also had this experience during the economic collapse of their market-oblivious 'economic' systems.Issuing a flat amount of currency per unit of time is not a 'flat supply'. New gold is dug out of the ground at a rate that approximately increases supply on an annual basis around 2-6%. Note I did not say 'million billion per year new currency' but 'increases supply'.Cryptocurrencies, almost without exception, and for absolutely no reason, adhere to the 'halving' routine of supply rate reduction. Guess what? The real supply growth rate, over a long time period, for most cryptocurrencies, approaches 20-25% per year... This isn't hyperinflation, but if central banks went with this kind of policy on an ongoing basis, they'd all have been rightly rounded up and locked up, if not set on fire.Not only that, but if you normalise the supply curve based on the network consensus parameters, you will see something resembling a saw. At the flat unit-per-time rate between halvenings, the first half is a sudden precipitous drop, and then a curve that accelerates upwards.I had noticed it before, and the other day a friend was talking about how the big peaks of cryptocurrency prices happen around the mid-point between halvenings, and the bottoms of the crashes tend to be found at the point of the halvenings.If you were praying for an end to the crypto bear market, bear in mind that the bitcoin halvening isn't for another 500 or so days.While it may be the case that intrinsic value trumps supply parameters when it comes to currencies, supply parameters can not just overwhelm this but also cause massive, delayed shocks as the market digests the excessively issued currency, and it eventually stops being hodled as it appears that a stampede for ownership of the currency, the strong hands take their profits, and the market blows itself to the peak dictated by the supply parameters, and then after it dips under the interpolated long term supply rate, eventually it comes back. And unless a cryptocurrency abandons this half-baked supply rate control scheme, in the next 4 years, it's going to be dead.Bitcoin is a very good, recognisable brand, but markets don't like fluctuating supply. An analogy to precipitation of water could be made - farmers have no use for floods, or droughts. Stories of Lambos and McMansions may bring the herd for a rally, but stories of going bankrupt will dramatically impede adoption. It may not completely kill bitcoin, but for sure it is going to kill at least 80-90% of the altcoins, and I personally doubt that bitcoin will ever see as high as USD$20,000 again.I'm not being a party pooper, I'm just trying to explain that simply, the state of the technology right now is abysmally unfit for users. There has been precious little real innovation, and it speaks to the fact that money is only one of a constellation of factors in success.The most important factor to success in the marketplace is encapsulated in the french word Entrepreneur - to grasp between. Crypto has come this far because it gives benefit to the little guy, the individual, the outsider, and because the current caretakers of the monetary systems enforced by governments on their behalf, have impoverished people so much, that even a currency with square-wave harmonics is better, for a while, than central banks who arbitrarily tell you how much you have to pay for their worthless numbers-on-a-ledger.So I will make some predictions, in light of the foregoing:It seems I have been very lucky to end up working on one of the few with a tiny userbase that seems to be relatively immune to 51% attacks. I can see very well what goes on on the network, and the irony is that, unlike the case of Vertcoin, there is something about the way the difficulty adjustment works that defies any kind of effective hashpower attack.Parallelcoin's network is nearly useless, from a user's perspective, with its extremely wide variance between long and short block times. Instead of being able to take control of mining blocks, Parallelcoin nodes literally drive the difficulty always slowly upwards (somewhat like the 'timebomb' in ethereum's difficulty adjustment). Or in other words, the more hashpower tries to dump on the network, the less blocks the network gives. This can be seen in the long term history of the chain, as its hypothetical 5 minute block target has an actual all-time average of about 12.75 minutes, and I suspect that if nothing was done it would eventually thin out to half an hour, then rapidly days.For this reason, like the antiquated halvening supply reduction regime, the 'One chain to rule them all' data structure that resembles the growth of a vine, also has to be thrown out the window. The biggest problem with this attempting to target some arbitrary time period, constrained by concerns about usability, on one hand, and on the other hand, the 'easy money' attraction of cryptocurrency mining, and the neverending hashpower race - it is coming to an end.With a sustained bear market, which I predict will persist for the next year and start to ease off around March-June 2020, the arms race will get a lot less heated, and not only that, I'm not the only one seeing this - it's not so much about the obvious, the effective rapid depreciation of the hardware that takes place.The burden of satisfying users and defanging miners falls to developers, who have to stop standing on soapboxes talking about the wonders of ten years ago's great innovation, and, first designing, and then implementing genuinely new and improved protocols.Companies like Steemit, Ripple, and others will eventually get bought out by the likes of Facebook, Twitter, and so forth, I mean, what should people really think about Ripple's hosting of that noted womaniser and liar Bill Clinton? I'd guess that more than a few upper echelon folk in cryptocurrency companies are probably tired of the stress and would happily divest for a reasonable amount to the big players.Oh, did I say they were on the way out? No, what I really meant was, that what was the schtick of shysters in the last 5 years, they are amateurs compared to the slimebags populating the upper echelons of the banking systems. They will for sure attempt to replace their tarnished old socialist dress and pretend they are all edgy and 'decentralised', and quasi-decentralised platforms like Steemit and its several (corporate) me-toos like Whaleshares, Weku and Smoke, are all just scams waiting for a bigger scammer to come along and recognise and buy it up, so they can go sunbathing in the Bahamas.Central bankers and big banks in general are amongst the most hated groups in the world right now. They need a new PR campaign, and decentralised-looking, but actually not open, or permissionless, are a perfect fit.You may not buy into conspiracy theories about central banks, the globalist elites jet-setting around the world to coordinate and self-congratulate at their secret confabs the massive numbers of people they robbed/fooled, but any fool can see right now that the polished veneer of modern secular states, and their worker-beneficiaries, the crony corporations (owned by, you guessed it, those dynastic former aristocratic families, some still having titles and crowns, and those they select for such honors), are chafing really badly at the fact that people want to use these social networks to coordinate campaigns of information (as opposed to disinformation) about the dirty stuff going on behind the curtain.You might be wondering what non-conspiratorial based thesis I have for this prediction? People are growing tired of having their neurochemistry tweaked up and down by the novelty of real time, live interactions with people around the world. People are very unhappy about their gossip being turned into the most collossal surveillance apparatus ever seen in history.The most important thing about this is that there really can be such thing as a 'Decentralised Autonomous Organisation'. All that is required are a few things to improve the situation:Mining must become and remain very decentralised. Stake is no real alternative, and ironically the very word itself belies the fact that it is based on the tenuous assumption that the cryptocurrency will have such elevated market value. But unless a staked cryptocurrency somehow manages to avoid the inevitable widening of the top and bottom of the wealth spectrum, it's doomed.The platform should provide users with easy to use tools for money management. Savings plans, slow-trickle withdrawal rates, time locked deposits, on-chain escrow systems. Security also has to be greatly improved, both against robbery and against simply losing the keys that control the tokens.The platform should facilitate decisionmaking by groups of people with common interests. We need a proper system for this, and the voting system on this platform gives some hint at the direction it should go. There needs to be a reliable and trustworthy record of the expressions of assent or dissent towards other users and their work and writings, and some kind of scoring system that allows schools of minnows to deplatform wealthy, malicious users.Extending from the previous point, the development of large complex software ecosystems, in which peer review and meritocracy are coded in to create a non-alienable currency of reputation, which cannot be faked. Most of the biggest problems of human society come down to this ability to fake legitimacy. This is something decentralised systems can do, that centralised systems can never do.Facilitating private trade between people, while also allowing users to accumulate good and bad performance metrics that are publicly visible. This and the previous two points pivot around the issue of an effective reputation scoring system. The chinese communists are trying to force such a ranking system on people, where hidden people behind closed doors in front of screens can literally destroy your life by putting a fake, big black mark on your reputation. You bet other tyrannical bastards like the mindless bureaucrat-kings grown quite fungal in the foetid environment of stakeless (not market disciplined) government environment want to have this. But it's not going to go over well. A reliable, peer reviewed and un-forgeable reputation score will be such a big hit with the market, it amazes me that nobody has really tried to achieve it yet. Well, they have tried, but mostly half-assed. Because it looks good for their decentralisation that peers are rating you and not the almighty bureaucrats. This is one of the lesser discussed appeals of this platform.In the end, it's all about the people. The rise of capitalism over the last 300 years shows that when people govern themselves, everyone benefits. Even the homeless guy.If you think it can be rough on the streets now, and I know from personal experience, in Bulgaria, that being homeless nowadays does not include barely being able to stay dressed (let alone coping with snowy weather), or being able to use long distance communication systems. Literally, for much of the world, homeless now is not unlike middle class just over 100 years ago, except for the no house part. Even relatively poor people in houses have so much spare food and clothing that in many cities you can actually be quite well dressed, and eat not so badly, without even asking anyone for anything.Cryptocurrency's first really big wave has now crashed and it is not smart to behave like there's still moon on the horizon. No, what is on the horizon is a lot of new innovations that will come from poverty-stricken developers like me and others, that solve real problems and it's always in the solving of other people's problems that the initial rise to wealth always happens. You can read about it in the biographies of almost every true rags-to-riches story.The technology is just so young, it's foolish to make any substantial bets on its short-term future. I'd suggest to take this 10th anniversary of the inception of Bitcoin, to ponder over the matter of how much the world has changed, not so much (only) cryptocurrency, but 3d printing, drones, artificial intelligence, and the increasingly cheap and powerful devices that allow us to take measurements and accurately respond to situations we barely even had an inkling of the factors before.Thank you for reading, and I hope this gets the hamster wheels inside your noggins whirring!Well, i guess digestion will be slow as i will need to come back to it again to fully grasp the gist, but one thing that caught my attention is that we that are here are like the early adopters. Nice to know that i wont be left behind on a project that will eventually grow so big and popular in the future. Thanks for sharing my friend.The more users a currency has, the greater power afforded to its' issuers... totally in favor of this phrase ... certainly the technology is very new, barely 10 years of existence for the Bitcoin, but like the internet that is just over 30 years old the cryptocurrency will evolve into a better use situation and change the history of humanity becoming a global necessity 😉
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